Lumber prices are becoming more normal again.

After soaring this Spring to record levels, they have lowered back to near pre-pandemic levels.

The current price for 1000 board feet of lumber is $577.  This is 62% below the price this past May when it reached an all-time high of $1,515.

In the years leading up to the pandemic, prices tended to be between $350 and $500.

While this is great news for consumers and home builders, the prices aren’t drastically lower yet in the lumber aisle at your local bib-box hardware store.

This is because many retailers are still selling through their inventory of lumber which they purchased at higher prices.

However, for the long term, home buyers will benefit from the more normal lumber prices that now exist in the market.

Here’s the latest from one of our favorite data sources – the Federal Housing Finance Authority (FHFA).

They track home prices across the Country and produce a quarterly Home Price Index report.

It is not uncommon to find Colorado near the top of the list for year over year price growth.

The latest report has us ranked 13th with only a 13% year over year increase (said with sarcasm).

Idaho is first with a whopping 24% increase. Utah is second at 19%.

Here is our interpretation of these numbers…

Colorado has a history of strong, steady price growth instead of booms and busts.

Our market does not take the big, wild swings in prices that other markets sometimes do.

The fact that Colorado is not at the very top of the list right now is actually good news to us.

We know that our clients appreciate a market that is more steady instead of one that can feel like a rollercoaster.

The economic research blog called “Calculated Risk” just completed a fascinating study on home prices.

Specifically, they looked at the correlation between home price growth and inventory.

They used price data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and inventory data from the National Association of Realtors.

No surprise, they found that the lower the inventory the higher the home price growth.  Also no surprise, as inventory goes up, price growth slows down.

This all correlates with simple economic rules of supply and demand.

The interesting part of their research is this:  at a certain level of inventory, prices have the potential to go down.

That level, according to their research, is six months of inventory.

That means, prices don’t have a chance of decreasing in a market until there is at least 6 months of inventory available for sale.

To put that in perspective, today there is two weeks of inventory on the market along the Front Range.

So, there would need to be 12 times the amount of homes for sale on the market for prices to even have a chance to go down.

According to research from the National Association of Realtors, home prices have appreciated for 107 straight months.

The median price in the U.S. is now $309,000.

The U.S. region with the highest median price is the West at $461,800. The lowest is in the South at $263,300.

All regions showed double-digit price appreciation from one year ago.

While prices are going up all across the U.S., inventory is going down. The number of properties for sale has declined for 20 straight months.

Low inventory and high demand are causing properties to sell quickly. It now takes an average of 21 days for a property to go under contract compared to 43 days one year ago.

So, the dynamics we notice locally are also occurring nationally.